In short
Classify all inbound traffic, identify the volume that is commercial in character but arrived outside billable channels, and apply the operator's own A2P termination rate to that volume. The result should be reported with its classification method, confidence level and assumptions attached, because it is an estimate rather than a measurement.
Why it is an estimate
Bypass traffic is, by definition, absent from the records that would measure it exactly. There is no invoice, no agreement and often no reliable identification of the originating enterprise. Any figure produced is therefore an estimate, and presenting it as anything else will not survive scrutiny from a wholesale director.
The goal is not precision. It is a defensible range with a stated method, which is enough to prioritise investment and open commercial conversations.
The calculation
The method has four steps, each of which should be documented:
- Classify all inbound messaging over a representative period — at least a full month, to capture weekly and monthly cycles.
- Identify the subset that is commercial in character: OTP structure, transactional or promotional content, branded Sender IDs, machine-regular timing, high destination diversity.
- Subtract the volume that arrived through approved, billable A2P channels. The remainder is the candidate leakage volume.
- Apply the operator's own A2P termination rate — not a market average — to that volume, and band the result by classification confidence.
Banding by confidence
Not all candidate volume is equally certain. Traffic confirmed by route testing to have arrived with a substituted Sender ID is high confidence. Traffic identified purely by content heuristics is lower confidence.
Reporting a high-confidence floor, a mid-range estimate and an upper bound is far more useful than a single number, and it makes clear which portion is actionable immediately.
The assumptions to state
Three assumptions consistently attract challenge and should be addressed before they are raised: that all identified commercial traffic would in fact have been sent at the operator's A2P rate had the bypass been unavailable; that the classification does not over-capture legitimate P2P or machine-to-machine traffic; and that the measurement period is representative rather than distorted by a campaign or seasonal peak.
Route-testing evidence strengthens the first two considerably, because it demonstrates specific routes delivering specific enterprise traffic outside the approved path.